AI & probability consulting

Decisions you can bet on.

WATO builds AI, probability, and data models that turn uncertainty into a measurable edge — for startups, operators, and research teams who need to make the right call under pressure.

What we do

Expertise

Four disciplines, one goal: quantify the uncertainty in your business and build the systems that act on it.

AI & Machine Learning

Custom predictive models, forecasting systems, and deep-learning pipelines designed around your data and shipped to production.

Probability & Risk

Monte Carlo simulations, Bayesian inference, and scenario models that make risk legible instead of intuited.

Algorithm Development

Decision engines and probability-based algorithms tuned for real workloads — latency, throughput, and interpretability.

Software & Tooling

Dashboards, APIs, and internal tools that turn a model into something your team will actually use every day.

Where we work

Industries

We take on problems where the right model is the difference between a good quarter and a bad one.

Construction

Cut overruns and delays before the first pour. We build models that forecast cost, schedule, and material risk.

  • Cost forecasting — predict budgets from historical project data and flag overruns early.
  • Resource planning — optimize crew, equipment, and sequencing.
  • Demand forecasting — anticipate material needs and prevent shortages.
  • Waste reduction — identify where excess and rework are eating margin.

Hospitals & Healthcare

Better care, lower waste. We help hospitals forecast demand, catch fraud, and deploy capacity where it matters.

  • Patient-flow forecasting — staffing and capacity plans driven by admission predictions.
  • Fraud & claims review — anomaly detection for billing and medical coding.
  • Budget optimization — inventory and spend models that cut waste without cutting care.
  • ICU bed management — forecast demand and avoid costly over- or under-capacity.
  • ER wait-time reduction — predict peak hours and match staffing to real demand.

Real Estate

AI and blockchain tooling for valuation, transactions, and underwriting.

  • Market trend modeling — forecast prices and surface investment signals.
  • Automated valuation — price properties from location, demand, and market data.
  • Smart contracts — transparent, auditable property transactions on-chain.
  • Mortgage risk scoring — sharper lending decisions, faster approvals.
  • Tenant screening — surface risk without relying on noisy proxies.

Logistics & Supply Chain

Cut delivery cost, reduce stockouts, and keep fleets moving.

  • Demand forecasting — balance stock against real demand signals.
  • Fleet & route optimization — lower fuel burn and on-time misses.
  • Live shipment tracking — ML-backed ETAs and exception alerts.
  • Predictive maintenance — catch failures before they ground a truck.
  • Autonomous operations — from smart sortation to last-mile automation.

Blockchain

We integrate blockchain where it actually earns its keep — transparency, provenance, and settlement.

  • Secure transactions — decentralized ledgers for auditable payments.
  • Smart contracts — self-executing agreements that remove reconciliation work.
  • Supply-chain tracking — provenance for food safety and pharmaceuticals.
  • Identity verification — stronger KYC without hoarding personal data.
  • DeFi integrations — selectively, when they solve a real cost or access problem.

Finance & Trading

Statistical models for traders, funds, and treasuries that need to measure risk, not guess it.

  • Market prediction — trend, sentiment, and macro signals combined in one model.
  • Algorithmic trading — ML- and probability-driven strategies from research to live.
  • Risk management — VaR, stress tests, and drawdown controls built to hold up.
  • Anomaly detection — spot unusual market or account behavior before it costs you.
  • Portfolio optimization — Monte Carlo and Bayesian allocation, not naive mean-variance.

Restaurants & Food Service

Reduce waste, tighten margins, and price smarter with models built for real operators.

  • Demand forecasting — order what you'll sell, not what you hope to.
  • Dynamic pricing — menu pricing that responds to cost and demand.
  • Table turnover — seating strategies that lift revenue at peak.
  • Supply-chain planning — avoid 86ing items and prevent spoilage.
  • Loss prevention — detect unusual transactions and shrink patterns.
Selected work

Portfolio

A sample of projects we've shipped.

Predictive Trading Model

An ML-driven signal engine for forex and equities, built for real-time decisioning on noisy market data.

Clinical NLP Diagnostics

A model that reads free-text clinical notes to surface likely conditions, improving triage accuracy for care teams.

NASA Data Query System

A high-performance query layer over large astronomical datasets, cutting analysis time on space science workloads.

Financial Risk Models

Probability-based risk frameworks used by investment teams to size positions and stress-test strategies.

About

We ask the question most firms skip: what are the odds?

WATO is an independent consultancy focused on AI, machine learning, and applied probability. We work with founders, operators, and research teams who are tired of dashboards that describe the past and want systems that help them act on what's next. Every engagement starts with one question — what decision is this model supposed to improve? — and works back from there.

Get in touch

Let's talk odds.

Tell us the decision you're trying to get right. We'll tell you whether we can help — and what it would take.